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In harm’s way

• It’s hurricane time again.
• World at loggerheads regarding global warming.
• Greater Caribbean needs to wake up to growing number of hurricanes.

Science chases money and money chases its tail

and the best minds of my generation can’t make bail

but the bacteria are coming to take us down, that’s my prediction

it’s the answer to this culture of the quick fix prescription

—Ani DiFranco, Garden of SimpleIt’s that time of year again. Right on cue, after the Oscars, it’s the naming of the Atlantic storms, better known to us locally as the precursor to the Caribbean hurricane season.

This year, Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie and William promise to be blockbusters, sure to keep our emergency services entertained and our people (hopefully) glued to their seats.

The naming also comes on cue for what is quickly becoming a sad global tradition when, following the reports of the UN[1] in 1990, 1995, 2001 and now in 2007, through a mind-boggling act of prestidigitation and misdirection on the part of the ubiquitous “they,” the world finds itself at loggerheads regarding global warming and its causes, conveniently ignoring the fact that, whatever the pathology may be, the symptoms are here, now.

Nowhere is this hijacking of the discourse more pathetic than in the Greater Caribbean where our ability to have an effect on the cause, whether natural or anthropogenic, is negligible to say the least, but our economic, social and political situation gives us the combined potential to rise to the challenge, if only we would look in the right direction, away from the smoke and mirrors.

At some point very soon, we need to wake up to the fact that even renowned naysayers of man-made climate change, global warming and increase of storm activity admit to the growing number and intensity of hurricanes in the Atlantic/Caribbean.

Fortunately, there has been a growing tendency whereby the grassroots level, the scientific community and international organisations have found common ground in the need for policy-relevant information that sidesteps the Byzantine debate on causality in order to address the real threats faced by real people in harm’s way due to climate change.

At the heart of the debate is the need for humans and their settlements, particularly in the developing world, to adapt to circumstances over which we have so little short-term control. Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for decades and oceans store heat for centuries, so regardless of the cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions, previous emissions will keep the Earth toasty for quite a while. Even if emissions were to stop before this comes to press, it is believed that temperatures will keep rising, and all the impacts will continue to add up for some time.

Though such statements would certainly have had anyone tarred and feathered as a sell-out only a few years ago, there is growing acceptance for the need to assess scientific, technical, environmental, economic and social aspects of the vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptability) to climate change, as well as options for adaptation.

Adaptation, then, should continue to gain ground in our efforts to conceptualise and face climate change. Human and natural systems will inevitably adapt on their own to some degree, but planned adaptation can supplement autonomous adaptation in a way that enhances maximum benefit, bearing in mind that some pundits now go as far as to speak of the potential boon of climate change to certain regions which adapt successfully.

According to Roger Jones, a co-author of the IPCC report: “Adaptation to climate change is now inevitable; the only question is whether it will be by plan or by chaos.”

n Luis Carpio is the director of transport and natural disasters of the Association of Caribbean States. The views expressed are not necessarily the official views

of the ACS. Feedback can be sent to: mail@acs-aec.org