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By
Jeff Jarvis
Never mind Web sites. Forget page views. Theyre so 2006.
This was the year of Facebook. The social site, started in
2004 to organise college communities, was finally opened to
the rest of us and, in the spring, it was discovered en masse
by media wonks (like me),a who forced acquaintances into joining,
using the evangelistic fervour of recent cult converts. Then,
in May, Facebook opened up to developers, who now were able
to add applications to the service. Already, theyve
built 5,000. And, in October, Microsoft beat Google to invest
in the company at a valuation of $15 billion.
Worth it? Id say yes. Facebook has 50 million active
users (each worth $300, according to Microsoft, as opposed
to $500 a year for a newspaper reader, according to Deutsche
Bank). They are joined by 200,000 more daily, all of whom
spend an average of 20 minutes every day inside.
But far more valuable than that is the realisation of Facebook
as a platform, on top of which we users organise our communities,
and on top of which those developers are building venture-backed
companies.
Facebook analytics firm Adanomics tracks the supposed value
of these applications, pegging the most popular, Top Friends,
with 20 million installations, at $28 million.
Facebook is answering the question every company should be
asking: what would Google do? Google built a platform that
enables others to build businesses; now so has Facebook. Indeed,
23-year-old Facebook founder Mark Zuckerbergs ambition
is to build the Google of people.
Yahoo would have been wise to have asked that questionWWGD?years
ago.
Instead, it made itself into a classic, albeit digital, media
company during six years under the leadership of CEO Terry
Semel. That strategy ran out of gas and in June, Yahoo fired
Semel. Co-founder Jerry Yang took over and is now hinting
at his new strategy; Yahoo as a platform.
At the same time, Yahoos traffic numbers have been falling,
but thats not because of dwindling popularity. Its
because Yahoos pages, like those of many sites now,
are built on newer technologiesFlash, Ajaxwhich
embed more content and functionality into a single view, reducing
the clicks a user makes. That is why tracking service Nielsen
decided this year to stop counting page views, which had been
the universal measure of Web popularity (but page views are
now, remember, so 2006).
Measuring the Web is further complicated by the explosive
growth this year of widgets: exportable modules of content
and programming that are easy to add to a blog or MySpace
page; YouTube videos, for example. Indeed, TV networks are
counting on such open distribution.
NBC and Fox announced a new service to air their shows online;
CBS began executing an audience-network strategy
to have viewers share shows; and the BBC and Sky released
new players. Yet, at the same time, Viacom was suing YouTube
parent Google for enabling piracy. All this reveals only that
the very architecture of media distribution on the Web is
still very much in development. But the business model of
internet media is becoming clearer. Google, Yahoo, Microsoft,
and AOL have been in a race to buy advertising technologiesDoubleClick,
aQuantive, Right Media, Tacodaand no wonder, since it
is apparent that the Web will be supported by little more
than adverts and ego.
In September, the New York Times ended its quixotic attempt
to charge for content, TimesSelect, when it concluded that
getting traffic and ads via Google search was a better business.
This only fuelled speculation that new Wall Street Journal
owner Rupert Murdoch will shut its tollbooth.
The Economist has jumped its pay wall. That would leave only
FT.com trying to charge readers online as it does in print.
So much for circulation revenue. All online is a freesheet.
So if advertising is the lifeblood of the Internetand
thus the future of all mediawho controls it? Who wins?
Who else? Google. By one calculation, it now has 40 per cent
market share of online advertising; a share growing faster
than the industry.
So the constant calculation in media minds is whether Google
is friend or enemy; as if theres really a choice. Belgian
newspapers won a suit against Google News to take down their
headlines, but by May, they had relented and allowed their
news to return to Google. In a little-heralded but still significant
shift, Google that same month included current and archived
headlines, videos and photos in its reconstituted universal
search results, giving new attention to media other
than plain, old Web pages (whichneed more proof?are
so 2006).
Google also became a publisher.
In August, it licensed and began serving complete wire-service
articles. This only worried the newspapers that used to get
that traffic. While in the UK, the national brands keep squabbling
as if in the playground over whos biggest online, in
the US, newspapers should be so lucky. Tribune Company is
going private, Belo and Scripps are hiving off their underperforming
newspaper divisions, and every month, the industrys
finances get worse.
Where does Google go next?
The rumour is that it will release a phone or mobile operating
system, overshadowing the launch of Apples iPhone. Media
will finally and truly go mobile.
The one player that emerges in all of 2007s developments:
Google. This may have been Facebooks year. But so far,
it is still Googles century.
The
networking site continues to grow as a platform for building
business, though Google has seized the lions share of
online advertising
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